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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd